This has been one of the most unpredictable championship fights in Formula 1 history. After 17 races, you can count on one hand how many times the race winner was a pre-race favorite, and the sport’s two top drivers are separated by just half a point. Lewis Hamilton has scored more wins than his teammate and rival Nico Rosberg, but Rosberg has had a relatively flawless season, triumphing on his rivals’ home turf at Silverstone, and in the unpredictable chaos of a rain-hit race at the Circuit de Catalunya.
Formula 1’s 2017 Drivers’ Championship has been one of the most exciting in history. The world’s best drivers have faced a tough challenge, with Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel trading the World Drivers’ Championship title between them all the way up to the final few races of the season. The mistakes and moments of brilliance defining F1’s title battle
If the first three races of the 2021 season have taught us anything about the battle for the championship, it’s that small mistakes can be very costly.
It may seem unfair to focus on the mistakes rather than the brilliant moments of the races so far (although this article focuses on both), but the level of driving between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton has been so high that it’s often the mistakes that have the most impact.
Hamilton’s victory in Portugal, which gave him an eight-point lead over Verstappen in the championship, probably ranks in the top 10 percent of his 97 career wins.
But even his team boss Toto Wolff was not full of praise for the seven-time champion, given the incredibly high bar Hamilton has set for himself in recent years.
There’s no need to talk about those extraordinary performances by Lewis, because they were perfectly normal, Wolff said.
That’s his standard now, and I think he sets that standard for himself.
We had a good race car [in Portugal], it was very close again with Red Bull, but he just drove a faultless race.
It was Hamilton’s second clear race of the year, having already won the first round of the season in Bahrain.
Verstappen, on the other hand, drove a flawless race in Imola, although the mistakes that marred his piggy bank in the other two races were not as big as Hamilton’s one big mistake in Imola.
The total gap between the two drivers is therefore eight points, just as in the first three races in which the two men monopolised the first two podium places.
But with just over 10% of the season behind us, the lead in the championship could well have belonged to Verstappen, and the difference was only in the margins, as the chart below shows.
Mistakes or moments of genius
Verstappen error
Max Verstappen missed his chance to beat Lewis Hamilton at the Bahrain Grand Prix. Clive Mason - Formula One via Getty Images
Overtaking restrictions on the Bahraini highway
Verstappen was confident of winning his first race of the season until he went off track in Turn 4 and gave the lead to Hamilton. A small mistake, measured in centimetres, but one that forced him to give the lead back to his rival with three laps to go. Perhaps the biggest mistake came a lap later, when a huge skid in Turn 12 exhausted his tyres and prevented him from continuing his assault on the Mercedes.
Cost: 7 points.
Qualifying in Imola
It was nothing more than a disappointing qualifying lap, but he was third on the grid behind teammate Sergio Perez and Hamilton. However, this mistake was easily forgiven after his blistering start the next day and had no impact on the championship.
Costs: Zero points.
Just before the safety car turn at Imola
When the race was due to resume after the safety car, Verstappen lost the rear of his car at Rivazza and briefly went off track, before recovering and rejoining at the front on resumption. It could be considered an exceptional save under difficult circumstances or a lucky save that almost cost him the victory.
Either way, it didn’t affect the most remarkable performance by a driver this year.
Costs: Zero points.
PortimaoTrack qualification restrictions
Another mistake in qualifying, this time he went wide in turn 4 and broke the track restriction rules. The mistake may have cost him more time than it gained, meaning he gained no advantage by going off the track, but a lap that would have been fast enough for pole position was negated.
Cost: Given the way the race went, it’s hard to quantify, but had he started from pole ahead of Bottas, he could have built an early lead and taken the win.
Second place for Hamilton in Portimao
Having passed Hamilton after an early safety car period, Verstappen found himself defenceless in front of Hamilton on the turn 14 straight three laps later and the Mercedes swept past him on the approach to turn one. A small mistake, but one that cost him the position he lost to his main rival in the championship, and a possible race win.
Cost: A possible win and seven points for Hamilton.
Crossing the line in an attempt to set the fastest lap in Portimao
This earned Verstappen an unwanted triple crown of track violations, meaning he has now lost the race, pole position and best lap of the season for leaving the white line. It was a clear case of going over the track’s limit in Turn 14 (although he seemed unaware of the controls in that turn afterwards), and the 0.016 second difference to Bottas’ best lap means he probably had enough advantage to set the fastest lap thanks to the wide lap.
Cost: Just a minute.
Total points left: At least eight, maybe fifteen.
Verstappen’s moments of brilliance
Max Verstappen passed Lewis Hamilton in Turn 1 of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. Bryn Lennon/Getty Images
Pole Race in Bahrain
It may not have been appreciated at the time, but Verstapen’s 0.4-second lead over Mercedes in qualifying in Bahrain could well be one of the biggest gains in this year’s end-of-season battle for pole. That lap earned him no points and he lost the race the next day, but credit to his teammate Perez who failed to qualify for Q3 in the same session.
Increase: Zero points.
Imola start
A big lead on the wet track combined with an aggressive but fair overtaking manoeuvre in Turn 1 saw Verstappen move up from third on the grid to first at the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix. It was the key to his first win of 2021 and was a reminder of what a brilliant driver Verstappen is.
The start was key to Verstagen’s victory, but his performance during the race was also impressive. Hamilton pressured him on the first lap, but finished in the hurdles. Nice performance on a day that his teammate didn’t finish in the points.
Profit: 10 points to go from third to first place
Bottas overtakesat Portimao
Another example of Verstappen’s natural racing instinct. Bottas’ slow pit stop in preparation for this move helped him a little, but when the Mercedes got back on track, he was right on the Finn’s heels. Bottas had problems with his cold tyre in Turn 3 and Verstappen was able to overtake in Turn 5.
Reinforcement : Three points for second place, ahead of Bottas
Total points scored in moments of brilliance: At least 13.
error Hamilton
Lewis Hamilton had bad luck in Imola, but still earned 19 points for second place and fastest race lap. Bryn Lennon/Getty Images
Barriers at Imola
It was a bigger mistake than the one in Verstappen’s section, but Hamilton was saved from retirement by a red flag when Bottas and George Russell collided a lap later. It turns out that a little luck also helps in the battle for the title.
Cost: Zero points, but it could have been 15. Perhaps Hamilton could have denied Verstappen the win without the error, which would have increased the number of points lost, but it’s hard to say how much Red Bull had in reserve at this stage of the race.
Safety car restart in Portimao
Hamilton had to give way to Verstappen on lap seven in Portugal after being surprised by the safety car restart. He further explained that he looked in the mirror at the exact moment Bottas passed the field for the restart. He regained the position a few laps later, but admitted to calling himself an idiot under his helmet as he passed Red Bull.
Cost: Zero points.
Time window for Bottas’ fastest lap attempt
It wasn’t Hamilton’s fault, it was Mercedes’, but it’s worth celebrating because it almost gave Verstappen an extra point. Bottas retreated to the pit lane with three laps to go to put on the soft tyres in an attempt to set the fastest race lap in Portugal, but that gave Red Bull the chance to take the lead from Verstappen with two laps to go.
In the end, Verstappen’s attempt violated the lane limit rules and he didn’t get a point, but Mercedes almost gave Verstappen a point by stopping Bottas a lap early.
Cost: Zero points.
Total number of points left: Zero, but it could have been much more.
Hamilton Moments of Genius
Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen collided wheel to wheel for the third race in a row. PATRICIA DE MELO MOREIRA/AFP via Getty Images
Bahrain Victory
Although Verstappen missed out on victory by a passing move across the line, it was impressive that Hamilton was able to force the move and then hold onto the lead for the remaining laps. In the end Verstappen should have beaten Hamilton in Bahrain, but the Mercedes driver should not be blamed for that.
Reinforcement: 7 points.
Pole race in Imola
Although Red Bull had the fastest car of the weekend, Hamilton still managed to put his Mercedes on pole with minimal mistakes. This lap was all the more impressive as his teammate Bottas could only manage eighth place on the grid. He lost the lead in the first corner, which didn’t help him in the long run, but it was still a good qualifying lap.
Reinforcement : Zero points.
ImolaRepair disk Imola
His mistake in Imola should have cost him more, but when Hamilton had the chance to come back into the race, he took it. Starting from eighth, Hamilton passed the McLarens and Ferraris at the restart. He moved his Mercedes back into second place and set the fastest lap of the race.
Profit: 16 points
Portimao Recreation
The race in Portimao was Hamilton’s most impressive of 2021, when he overtook Verstappen and Bottas to take a comfortable victory. Maybe he should have been on pole given the speed of his car, maybe he shouldn’t have lost second to Verstappen on the restart, but the fact that he recovered so convincingly from those two situations says everything about how good Hamilton is this year.
Reinforcement: 10 points
Total points in the glory days: 33, most of them after a mistake in Imola.
What did we learn about the title fight?
Gabriel Buice - Pool/Getty Images
An analysis of both drivers’ mistakes and highlights shows that, had things gone slightly differently, Verstappen might well have taken the lead, while Hamilton’s eight-point lead can be explained by a combination of skill and luck. But the main purpose is to draw attention to the great battle ahead.
Hamilton may have been luckier than Verstappen, but that will settle down over the course of the 23 races.
Hamilton may have made fewer mistakes and scored more points through brilliant moments, but that’s not a direct comparison because both drivers are in different cars with different strengths and weaknesses.
For example, you could argue that Verstappen was closer to the limit of his car and therefore made small mistakes because he had to push harder. If you compare the first three races of Verstappen and his teammate Perez, you see that the gap between them is bigger than between Hamilton and Bottas.
Clearly we need to be perfect [to beat Hamilton], Red Bull team boss Christian Horner said when asked about Verstappens growing list of minor faults.
Cars have strengths and weaknesses - let’s not forget that Lewis drove a very poor race at Imola a few weeks ago and got away with it.
When you push your boundaries like these guys do, it’s inevitable that little mistakes happen.
All that talk about the limits of the circuit is frustrating, and it was brutal for us in three events: the win in Bahrain, yesterday’s pole position and the fastest lap.
It was rather expensive for us.
The competition between Red Bull and Mercedes has become tighter in the first three races, and Mercedes may have taken a step forward in Portugal.
But the perennial problem in Formula 1 of separating the performance of the car from that of the driver is still there.
The question of who had the fastest car in Portugal divides the concepts, said Andrew Shovlin, Mercedes technical director.
On Saturday [in the second qualifying session] Lewis set the fastest lap, but any of the three drivers [Bottas, Hamilton or Verstappen] could have been on pole.
To be fair, if you look at the race, it was won by Lewis. He started on P3, got passed twice on the track, took the lead and controlled the race.
It’s very difficult to tell the cars apart, but if you want to emphasise something, it’s that Lewis was the best driver [in Portugal] and that’s why he was on the top step of the podium.
Will it stay this close?
The fact that the first three races have been decided so close together bodes well for the rest of the season, but does not guarantee that the title fight will end in victory.
A serious mistake by Hamilton or Verstappen can lead to a loss of 26 points in a single weekend, making the list of relatively minor mistakes at the top of the final standings seem insignificant.
It also remains to be seen whether the performance of the two cars will remain close to each other at different circuits next year.
The three tracks that F1 has raced on so far have their own idiosyncrasies that can distort the picture.
Bahrain is particularly hard on tyres and Mercedes clearly struggled there, while Imola and Portimao were the opposite and Verstappen, at least in Portugal, was at a disadvantage with his Red Bull.
The next round in Spain will take place at F1’s traditional test track, the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, long considered the best barometer of the car’s overall performance.
Potentially hot temperatures and a rougher surface than in Portimao are areas of concern for Mercedes, although the world champions have made a habit of reducing their chances before each stage this year.
There are a lot of things on our roster that need to be addressed [in Spain], Schovlin said.
It can get pretty hot there, the asphalt is getting pretty aggressive now and can make it tough on the tires. We have already driven at two tracks where it was quite cold and it was quite difficult to get the tyres in the right mode.
Barcelona is a bit like Bahrain in the sense that you constantly overheat and Bahrain has not been very kind to us in some ways.
That’s the main thing we worry about, but honestly, I think it will be the same. You can’t separate the two cars and you can’t read qualifying or the race. It will be very dense.
This year we are getting used to it, and I think we will be all year.
You have to enjoy the game and not be too stressed, because it’s going to be a long and difficult year.
Mr Horner added: It will be interesting to see [if the situation in Spain changes]. I don’t think Max enjoyed the weekend [in Portimao]. I think he was frustrated with the lack of grip and the conditions, but that’s the case with everyone.
With summer just around the corner, there is so much data on this circuit with its mix of high and low speed corners in Barcelona next weekend, when it runs in normal conditions, that the picture is starting to become clearer.
We can see that Red Bull and Mercedes are two exceptional teams and that Max and Lewis are two exceptional drivers. I think the development race during the year will be very close between the two teams.
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