Basillioh Mutahi
News, Nairobi.

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Signature below photo Colonels of the state of Amhara, a neighboring state of Tigray, fighting alongside the federal army.

He also believes that the conflict in Eritrea, which has a long border with Tigray, has lasted a long time.

Eritrea has a long history of bad relations with the PFLP and its president, Isaias Afwerki, is an ally of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abia Ahmed.

Map

There is no doubt that the attack on the northern border of Tigray will open a new flank in the fight, but so far the Eritrean authorities have denied any involvement in the crisis.

The German government’s attention to Tigray also threatens to weaken its commitment to support the government in Somalia against al-Shabaab militants.

Ethiopia has already withdrawn some 600 troops from the western border of Somalia, although they did not participate in the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMIS), which is also supported by Ethiopia.

If the situation continues to deteriorate and Mr. Abdius is forced to leave the Americans, it will be a disaster. . . . . .it will create an opportunity for al-Shabaab to return and regroup, says regional analyst Mr. Abdi.

The International Crisis Group agrees and says that this conflict, if it is not stopped urgently, will be devastating not only for the country but for the whole Horn of Africa.

End of Ethiopia as a nation state

Despite the current involvement of Ethiopia’s neighbours, some argue that the conflict could weaken the Ethiopian state, which could have negative regional consequences, while other groups in the multinational country are encouraged to take over central power.

Mr Abdi said that you will indeed see how the regions are moving away from the centre and that the centre is becoming weaker and incapable of asserting itself.

 

the inscription on the photo Tigray troops have taken control of the military base

But Hassan Hannenje, director of the think tank in Nairobi at the Horn Institute, understands that Prime Minister Abia Tigray had to reconcile with the federal government to prevent others from following her example.

Mr. Abiy thinks this sets a bad precedent for other regions…. A unilateral step towards eventual secession would mean the balkanisation of Ethiopia, which could mean the end of Ethiopia as a nation state, he said.

Their ultimate goal is to get the state back on track and hopefully to stand as a single country in next year’s elections. This will be very difficult in practice, but it is not impossible.

At the same time, a crisis can lead to thousands of people being forced to leave their homes, either directly as a result of conflict or out of fear of conflict.

More information about the crisis in Tigray:

signatures in the minimum wage four things that explain the crisis in Tigray, Ethiopia

  • The publication of false news about the conflict in Ethiopia
  • Why would you be afraid of civil war in Ethiopia?
  • devastated by the conflict: My little brother needs his medicine.

 

More and more people are crossing the Sudanese border and the UN refugee agency said Friday that the newcomers are at risk of exceeding the current relief capacity, Reuters reported, quoting a spokesman.

The Sudanese government has agreed to set up a camp for 20,000 people 80 km from the border, and new sites are being designated, according to the UN.

Add to this the spectre of food shortages, with the region being one of the worst hit by the locust plague and new swarms threatening to emerge in the coming weeks, according to a recent UN humanitarian report.

The last thingneeds

About 600,000 people in Tigray – about 10% of the population – already depend on food aid, and about seven million people across the country depend on food aid, according to the United Nations.

If the fighting continues, the number of people in need of help will increase rapidly in an area already under pressure from other fronts.

The UN adds that the threat of uncontrolled disease and locust invasion is high in other parts of Ethiopia and neighbouring countries.

Given Ethiopia’s size and strategic position in the region, what is happening in the country does not necessarily have to be isolated, be it the fighting itself or a humanitarian disaster.

The Prime Minister is convinced that the conflict will be short-lived and stresses that this is a purely Ethiopian issue, but if it lasts longer, it could have serious consequences for many of his neighbours.

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