Last week I watched the NFL teams whose chances of making the play-offs have fallen the most since the start of the 2020 season. This week I’m going the other way, looking at the five teams whose odds have improved the most since the start of the campaign, according to the ESPN Football Energy Index (FPI).
Although they only claim an honorary mention here, there are some interesting ancestors until the end of the top ten. Do you think Washington’s chances of getting into the post-season have improved more than the Seacocks’ 5-1 lead? The FPI continues to believe that Seattle, with its chances of going from 60% before the season to 82.3% after 7 weeks, obviously has a much better chance of entering January, with a difference of 22.3 percentage points.
However, Washington started with a play-off breakaway of just 6.2% and two wins at NFC East were enough to lead Ron Rivera’s team in January with a 29.5% chance, just ahead of Seachokes with a 23.3% increase in points. Washington may be considering switching players as basketball player Ryan Kerrigan during Tuesday’s opening hours, but it’s also half a day away from the top spot in the worst football league. What a season!
Let’s review the more traditional improvements, starting with the dominant offensive, which was relaunched on Sunday:
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I’m not sure I remember a crime like the one we saw with the Packers. They were excellent every week except one week – six weeks against the Buccaneers – when they had their usual eggs at the wheel and then, after a peak of six, completely collapsed. You started the season with a wide receiver, you have this receiver and the second receiver. The latitude lost in the first six games, and it looks like they didn’t miss a single shot. Quarterback Aaron Rogers had no other star player on Sunday when Aaron Jones came back from behind, but with receiver Dawan Adams scoring from 196 yards, it didn’t matter.
The numbers on the Packers also contain arguments about why they are special and why they might not be as dominant as they seem. In seven weeks, Rodgers & Co. achieved an average of 3.03 points per company. Since 2001, only six teams have averaged more driving points in the first seven weeks of each season, representing the number of teams that have served as quarterbacks for Tom Brady, Drew Bree, Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomez. The 2020 packers lead all Green Bay teams from the Rogers era, including the 2011 team that started 7-0 and finished 15-1.
At the same time, the number of points earned will increase in 2020. The top six teams of this season have been in the top 16 for seven weeks, measured in points per disc. For raids in 2020 (2.80 points for possession) there are now on average more points for travel than in 2011 (2.73 points for travel). Adjusted to the number of points scored each year in the championship, Green Bay 2011 is closer to 42nd place. It is the first place of 2001, according to teams such as the 2012 Falcons and the 2014 Ravens. (And yes, after this adjustment, 2020 planes are the worst crime of this millennium so far).
Fault! The file name is not specified. Aaron Rogers and Packer’s attack this season is on fire while Rogers 85.4 Total QBR leads the NFL. Chain Logan/pictures of Getty
However, it is damn good to be the best in 2020 and we have not really seen a team that would have slowed down the Packers outside that three-quarters against Bucs. How did Tampa Bay do this? Busy. Rogers is the best quarterback in the KBZ class without pressure, but as soon as the opponent passes him, his KBZ goes from 91.4 to 35.5; the latter figure is still good for the 13th best, but it is the fastest way to make this offensive game look normal.
Bucs pressed Rogers and Tim Boyle 13 times to win, five times more than any other team has pressed Green Bay’s quarterbacks this season. Tampa Bay was particularly good at managing the pressure in the first four rows and generated eight lightning fast packer pressures when no other team had more than four. Bucs has an excellent quartet and a profound and talented second team. This way they could hide some rubbers right after the click and go home with a quartet before Rogers could adjust.
That’s where the problem lies with copying this strategy: According to the DVOA, Tampa Bay is the best defense in the football league. So even if teams have to try to imitate what they’re doing, they probably won’t be as good while they’re doing it. At the same time, we saw no hard defense from the Packers; the Texan is in 29th place in the BOA after the Packers set fire to it on Sunday, and the only defenders in the Green Bay top 10 who played outside the Bucs are the Saints, who are 10th overall and 16th against a tackle.
Three of Packer’s next five games will be played against the top eight teams in the BOA defense, including the Colts (fourth), the Bears (sixth) and the 49ers (eighth). Almost all the evidence we have suggests that Green Bay is a major offense, but all that remains to prove is whether it can win against the best defense in the league. Green Bay’s defense went from the 30th to the 22nd after beating the Texans. A place in the BOA, and their temporary frenzy will always return, but this team will go all the way to Rogers.
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Maybe the Packers will get the next 49 game. Ninth Tower. I think they’re going to find the second round a nightmare, given what happened to them last season. San Francisco trampled them in two different ways: Rogers’ regular season’s night ruins with a cheeky pass before he hits Mike Pettin’s defense in a game for the NFC title. Of course, the stars of these games – namely setter Nick Bosa and running back Rahim Mostert – are injured. A victory, even over the compromised 49ers, can dispel any fear that the Packers cannot keep up with the best in the NFC.
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Coincidentally, the cardinals won the most important victory after the famous doubles between Hail Mary and Rogers in the 2015 play-offs. The first team to defeat Sihox brought the Cardinals back to the Western NFC level after seven weeks of play, leaving them 2-0, perhaps the toughest division in the championship. This is a team that did not set a record in one week between 2016 and 2019.
Even with the performance of the cardinals, I still try to understand how good this team really is, especially because of their agenda. Arizona has lost twice to the Lions and Panthers, the teams that will lead the NFC playoffs. The Cardinals had quality gains over 49 players, while Sixhawk scored a total of seven points, but their three victories in the fight came from the Jets, Washington and the rest of the Cowboys. These teams do not represent a tough opponent.
It’s a question we can ask all teams in the western NFC who have been blessed with the gift of the timing gods this season. Each of them will receive four matches against a soccer-like substance, NFC East, and a fifth match against the Jets, which an NFC East team can consider a free weekend. As you can see in the previous paragraph, the cardinals have already played three of these five games.
The best team here is Seattle, who still have four of those five fields since the Cowboys won in September. The 49ers still have two games to play, while Rams has already reported from NFC East and has just played the singles game against the Jets, which will be played later in the year. The IPI, on the other hand, believes that although the Cardinals have the ninth largest board left, it is still the easiest of all Western teams in the NFC.
Fault! The file name is not specified. Kyler Murray has already scored 20 touchdowns – seven pitches – in seven games Ronald Martinez/Getty Pictures
What I find difficult in calibrating the cardinals is to understand what their stars will do week after week.
No one represents the MVP better than quarterback Kyler Murray, who drew the MVP’s attention earlier this season before cooling off. He is 9 out of 24 and misses a small cowboy touchdown, although one of those ends is an 80 yard touchdown, and the first general touchdown brought 74 yards for the offense.
On Sunday night, Murray did a little bit of everything. He beat DeAndre Hopkins’ Wide Receiver with a perfect shot early in the game for a 35-yard touchdown and then missed what could have been a 93-yard score. After the interception, Buddha Baker Murray made a mistake in rereading the ball, which cost the cardinals of the touchdown team. In the fourth quarter he threw an apparent rebound and then violently missed his shot with a third and a twelfth quarter that would have scored the goal.
From that moment on – removing the spikes and kneeling – Murray is 7 at 8 x 69 yards and carries the ball twice at 21 yards and the first two times to the ground. Tired of passing, Seachoks couldn’t get close to Murray, who seemed to be the best player on the field. We know he’s not influential every week, but it would be unrealistic to assume he’s this guy all the time. I wonder if it will make Murray’s life easier when Chase Edmonds returns as the protagonist, unlike the Kenyan Drake, who has been away for weeks because of an ankle injury.
On the other side of the ball, Patrick Peterson’s corner played an impressive game. There’s been talk of Peterson’s fall. In week 7, he was the next defender in the coverage zone to award the target 0.54 expected points – a figure that became 60th out of 77 qualifying corners that played at least 100 set-pieces in the coverage zone. For a man who turned 30 in July, a sudden fall can cost tens of millions of dollars, as we saw when Chris Harris Jr. met a free agency after leaving the Broncos in March.
Peterson was probably hoping for a great game under the light of Sunday’s soccer game, and although he did, the problem is that the eight-time pro might have been too good to attract a lot of attention. He took it upon himself to stop Metcalfe FC, to help ensure a quality showdown and to postpone the chase interruption until the quietest game of the season. According to my count Peterson had 34 photos of him as main defender at Metcalfe, without the end in sight.
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Metcalfe has been targeted three times by Peterson. A shot resulted in a game stoppage when Metcalfe injured himself on his run, while quarterback Russell Wilson expected him to continue. Metcalfe then beat Peterson on the track, but Wilson’s throw was short and Peterson could catch him and gave Peterson (who could still be caught) a strong grip. The third pitch is excluded from the game.
At the same time, Peterson had the 34-metre drop open Tyler Lokett’s wide receiver. Peterson was blocked on the screen by Lockett for the game, who took Metcalf home for a seemingly winning touchdown in the game, only to have his account revoked for detention. Peterson was also the closest defender on Lockett’s 47-yard count, but he didn’t seem to be the main defender, as Baker seemed to lose the ball and stop when Lockett kept passing him.
Baker had that interception against Seattle and rushed almost six, but he lost on Lockett’s touchdown and was stunned by Will Disley’s 28-yard touchdown. Hopkins, who suffers from an ankle injury, made a huge catch early on and had to make a second long touchdown, but he lost the ball and only made it 23 meters after the break. The newcomer to the top ten chose Isaiah Simmons, who intercepted Wilson to score the winning goal, who is still one of the underdogs and ended the game with only six defensive shots, three of which went in extra time.
This team always has the feeling it works, but the second half and the overtime of the Seachooks game reminded us how high the ceiling can be.
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As the last undefeated team in soccer, it has been proven to increase the chances of a place in the post-season! The Stallers have not always been dominant – they have a victory of more than 10 points, but they can be the team with the most combined offensive and defensive success. Mike Tomlin’s defense wasn’t the same as a year ago, but Pittsburgh is second in the DVOA defensive league.
The positive side of crime is more present on paper and in theory than one can expect on a weekly or even weekly basis. The steel producers are still frustrated by their inconsistent misconduct. The Ben Roethlisberger & Co. quarterback is the ninth highest scorer per round, the third highest scorer per round and somehow the fifth highest scorer per round of all teams.
Take Sunday’s game against the Titans. Stillers scored three touchdowns and a goal in the first four possessions in 24 hours and 7 minutes. After an unsuccessful sham for the 14-second break and the opportunity to add three more points, they even took the lead, although Roethlisberger ended half the time by interception. After the break, the five leaders scored an early goal, followed by two shots and two more interceptions. I can’t blame Roethlisberger, who tried to find JuJu Smith-Schuster in the lurch in his third pick against linebacker JuJu Smith, but the Steelers almost lost the game because the attack came to a standstill after a hot start.
Fault! The file name is not specified. – set
Eric Carabell is surprised at how fancy managers will have to deal with the big recipients of the Steelers in the coming weeks.
Rothlisberger’s game on all three interceptions may have been an exception, but his game on all three was ubiquitous. If we divide his season into 12 halves, Rothlisberger will have three halves with a QBR of 80 or more and two halves with a QBR of less than 27. The Pittsburgh receivers didn’t always help, as the Steelers have the fourth largest drop in the NFL. At the same time, those falls didn’t make much difference. Roethlisberger has one of the highest drop rates in the league within 15 yards of the crowd line, but the Steelers didn’t drop their passes 16 yards away.
Although Rothlisberger played some deep pieces, he was generally conservative this season. This year his average fare was only 6.7 meters in the air, which earned him a 27th place in the NFL. It took less than 2.27 seconds for the future Famera Hall to get rid of football in the league and, as ESPN’s Mina Kimes said earlier this week, Rothlisberger was just 2.06 seconds away from his pass attempts against the Titans on Sunday. No quarterback has gotten rid of the ball in 30 attempts as fast as Russell Wilson did against the same Steelers a little over a year ago, when he got rid of the ball in an average of 1.89 seconds. There’s nothing wrong with getting the ball fast, but it’s different from the way Roethlisberger has played in the past: That was 2.55 seconds before the 2018 attempt, the last full season.
But one thing is clear: This attack is characterized by Chase Kleipul’s Wide Receiver. Rothlisberger’s divisions with and without newcomers in the field are dramatic. We’re looking at monsters of only a hundred gears on either side, and Pittsburgh seems to be aiming to shoot the Kleipul with Dionta Johnson and James Washington when everyone is healthy, but he was still a quarterback in second gear:
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The availability of Roethlisberger is very important, and depending on how you cut it, the Steelers have been healthy this season. Pittsburgh has only three players in the injured group, only Sokolov (two) has fewer players in the IR. The problem is that these three actors had to make a substantial contribution: Devin Bush became a star linebacker, Zack Banner won the real gripper position and Stephen Wisniewski was the swing champion to replace David Decastro. Decastro and Johnson missed the time, but many teams would be jealous of what the Steelmakers left behind after six games.
As long as Pittsburgh doesn’t lose Rothlisberger or an important part of its core, it’s hard to imagine this team taking a big step back. She had the second easiest schedule in football, but her schedule is getting tighter to become the tenth easiest in the league for the rest of the season. So far, the Steelers have surpassed their point spread, as we expected them to win 4.4 on a 6-0 scoreline, but there’s no reason to believe they’ll suddenly give up.
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If the Titans had come back last week and defeated the Steelmakers, I couldn’t believe they would have lost again in battle. Tennessee lost the goal and went into the game 4-1, beating their resistance by a total of nine points. The biggest win of the offseason against the Bills was Team Texas’ overtime win, a race in which it took four seconds to get into the first overtime lap. These four unrecorded victories come from teams that have combined 5-21 this season. However, the Titans went through Stephen Gostkovsky in extra time and started the game 6-0.
At the same time, if you wait for the Titan formula to stop working… …you’ve waited a year without much success. Ryan Tannehill is in fourth place in the CBI-league this season and has an average of 10.8 yards for an offside attempt. The Titans have a nine plus margin, the highest score in football. Later, Mike Vrabel’s management helped create an opportunity to get back in the game, while most other teams wouldn’t have had a chance. They look like the real Titans.
A performance in Tennessee in the red zone is something that really attracts attention. After Tannehill took the lead last season, the offensive touchdowns turned 86.8% of the red zone rides for the rest of the off-season. No other team has exceeded the 73%. The average result of the championship was 58%. Even with Derrick Henry in their paws, the Titans were far from taking over Tannehill, and there is no precedent for it to happen again.
Fault! The file name is not specified. Ryan Tannehill has scored 15 touchdown passes this season and only two interceptions. AP Photo / Wade Payne
This season the Titans have fallen and risen to the surface… 80% of the touchdowns. Only the Sihawks were more likely to turn around for touchdowns. Titans – 14 out of 14 in target situation. They seem to happen automatically, but of these 14 transformations, four were in the third and one in the fourth. The only perfect team in the league is the Buccaneers, 20 out of 20.
In terms of defense, however, this is a different story. After Tannehill took the lead last season, Tennessee’s defense in the red zone was below average. This allowed the opposing teams to change in 61.9% of the cases, which means a 23rd place in the league. The Titans give 81% of the time to the change of season, or 31%. Only the Saints were worse and the other teams were able to score 20 points. It’s one thing to let the Stallers score in the 1920s, but Jaguars, Vikings and Texas were very good in the red zone against the Tennessee defense.
The question then arises: Do you think the Titans will continue to convert 80% of their journeys to the red zone into touchdowns if they are injured? If you do, they have a good chance to improve their performance level and set a great record in the coming weeks as their red zone defense is likely to fall back into the red zone. If you don’t, it’ll be a different story; they’ll probably see their red zone of attack and defence moving towards the platoon, but it’s unlikely they’ll be able to maintain that kind of reserve. They were only two in Tannehill’s ten regular seasons, which started a year ago.
As the trade deadline approaches, my only concern is how much the Titans depend on Tannehill and Henry to stay healthy. Each team is eliminated if they lose their quarterback or most famous striker, but the Titans risk having the worst quarterback or runback in the league if they lose their starting player. We’ve seen teams like the 2015 Bengalis and 2016 Raiders in the post-season after excellent regular seasons because they lost the starting quarterback due to injuries and lack of qualified support. Tennessee has Trevor Simian on his coaching staff, but in 2018, in the seventh round, Logan Woodside has no attempt to succeed in his career. While Tannehill stays healthy, the Titans are essentially checker castles.
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Bax has the best BOA in the league after seven weeks, led by defense number one. If you’re surprised that pirates defend themselves well, don’t be surprised. We talked about it after Tom Brady came to Tampa and the 29th President of the United States. The position Bax took in the efficiency defense last season was the product of factors that were almost completely out of their control.
If you rate Tampa Bay based on the points awarded for last season’s game, its defense was responsible for the top seven spikes thrown by James Winston. He inherited the worst starting position in the world of football, another product of Winston’s, which turns the ball around and passes small pitches to the opponent. Because the offensive usually scored a goal or turned the ball around quickly, Books has to deal with 189 important ball possessions that are a tie for the highest level. They also faced the most intense rivalry in the competition. None of this should happen again this season.
With Brady as quarterback, the defense is a lot easier. He threw two top six, but Books only got seven gifts for seven games. They have 11.2 ball possession per game compared to 11.8. They inherited a position close to the starting position in the league and met opponents from the intermediate league. Last season they finished in seventh place in terms of expected points for the disc in defense – 0.14 points for possession. This season they are at the head of the defensive classification with 0.34 points per stage.
Fault! The file name is not specified. Tom Brady has scored 18 touchdowns this season to finish second in the NFL and has only fired four shots. Ethan Miller/Getty Pictures
The loss of a Vita Vea equipment is painful, especially when running, but it is a great protection and different from what we saw a year ago. In 2019, Shaquille Barrett had an unbeaten season with 19.5 sacks, and while he had only three sacks in seven games, Jason Pierre-Paul had up to 5.5 sacks across the line. William Golston, who will always be on the run here, has two sacks and 11 KO’s in his career, which is impressive given that we have not even reached the halfway point of the season.
The young players in the back – seven – were different from each other. The safety of Antoine Winfield, Jr. remains a strong argument for the Rookie of the Year when he intercepts his first pass against the Raiders. Linebacker Devin White was a good beginner and was even better in his second season. In the first round of 2019, he was just named NFC defender of the week after scoring three goals for Derek Carr. Vea became a superstar for her ankle injury and Carlton Davis became one of the best corner players in the NFL. The Pro-Football reference notes that the second line of 2018 gives a reporting score of 59.4, which is lower than the score of 80.0 years ago.
Only the Jaguars and Rams have received more defensive shots from pawns this season than the Buccaneers, and the Bucs have many more talented players in these pawn operations. The only team in the league that can compete with them for young differentials in defense is the Steelmakers.
As for the other side of the ball, at a table you can understand what good and bad games for Brady and Tampa to attack:
|Enemy||Net revenue||Evaluation||Pressure %||Evaluation||QBR||Points/Actor|
If there was a way to stop Brady from going back to New England, it would be easy. Push, preferably without the flash, and play from behind. This book works for everyone – no quarterback is better put under pressure when he throws against seven defenders – but for a while, it was the only way to beat Brady. This season was the only way to slow down Bax’s attack. The Raiders showed the worst level of pressure in a year for the Buccaneers in defense and Brady responded with his best goalie finish of the season.
Despite this success, this crime continues to develop. Rob Gronkowski remained anonymous for the first month of the season, and for the last three weeks he has been in fifth place among the narrow-gauge riders on every track. Outfielder Scotty Miller played 83 yard games in weeks 3 and 4 with a total of 6 receiving yards between the 5th and 6th minute. week and then came back with 108 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders. Mike Evans, who was shot 9.5 times during the Winston era, has scored an average of 5.6 goals per game with Brady so far. Moreover, with six touchdowns and only 25 pitfalls, he is the new Gronck.
In the ninth week Antonio Brown will join the mix. I’ve already wasted too much time investigating how the Brown case might affect the new team, so I won’t make that mistake again. Brown took a step back in 2018 and has played a game since then, so I think we have no idea what his skills will be. If Evans and Chris Godwin do well, Brown Miller’s will take his place in the lineup and replace everyone’s goals. Neither Evans, nor Godwin, nor Brown is particularly enthusiastic about the number of passages he sees. Brown can also stay for a week until his release.
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Bucs didn’t have the best record in football and it hurt to lose Vea, but that’s what Bruce Arians & Co. was hoping for when they signed Brady and bought Gronk this spring. Brady wasn’t perfect, but with an improved weapon he looks more like the man who won the Super Bowl in 2018 than the man who couldn’t get the ball moving last season with the Patriots. His arrival revealed what was already a good defense and radically improved the environment. Ryan Succop was even a competent striker for a team that hadn’t had him for years.
As the games against the Saints, Rams and Chiefs of the 13th division are not over yet, the team is now in the middle of the action. In the course of the week a lot of people will find out if Beukie is really there. The evidence suggests we already have an answer.
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